Modern Warfare 4's Launch Numbers Raise Concerns About Call of Duty's Future

Call of Duty has been one of gaming's most reliable names for years, but its latest release may be proof that even this long-running franchise is beginning to lose its grip on players. Since its release, Modern Warfare 4 has received mostly positive feedback, with players enjoying its campaign and DMZ mode. But new data comparing its launch performance to Black Ops 7 suggests that the game hasn't attracted as many players as Activision may have hoped.

That doesn't automatically imply that Modern Warfare 4 is doing badly. It is still one of the most played games across multiple platforms, but given the standards Call of Duty has set over the years, the latest figures are worth paying attention to. More importantly, they could have serious consequences for the franchise's future, especially as Activision prepares to move beyond its familiar Black Ops and Modern Warfare sub-franchises.

New information from Charlie Intel, based on Circana data, shows the percentage of active players in the United States who played Call of Duty on different platforms during the launch weeks of Modern Warfare 4 and Black Ops 7. The comparison offers a useful look at how both releases performed on PlayStation 5, Xbox, and Steam.

The results aren't particularly promising for Modern Warfare 4. The game had a lower percentage of active players on almost every platform than Black Ops 7 did in its launch week. All the others were dropping like flies, but Steam was rising.

For context, just 1.5% of active US Steam players played Black Ops 7 during its launch week. That number is now up to 4.2% on Modern Warfare 4, a big jump for the platform. But it's a different story on consoles, especially Xbox.

Black Ops 7 launch performance was 12% lower for Xbox.

That's not too surprising, though, since Black Ops 7 was available on Xbox Game Pass, meaning subscribers could jump in without buying it separately. For many Xbox players, Game Pass is a major subscription service, so its inclusion likely helped Black Ops 7 reach a larger share of the platform's active player base.

Part of that difference is reasonably explained by the fact that Game Pass doesn't include Modern Warfare 4, though. The PlayStation 5 also dropped, but not quite as sharply. During its launch week, roughly 23% of active PS5 players in the US played Black Ops 7, while about 19% played Modern Warfare 4.

While these numbers don't tell the full story of either game's performance, they do indicate Modern Warfare 4 hasn't generated the same level of initial interest. This is especially worrying when you consider Black Ops 7 was deemed one of the franchise's more lackluster entries in recent years.

But don't write off Modern Warfare 4 as a bust just yet.

The game still ranks as the second most-played title on several platforms, which is a respectable achievement for any game. However, Call of Duty has historically been held to much higher expectations. The franchise often dominates gaming conversations each year and draws massive crowds whenever a new entry comes out.

The data available also has limitations. The numbers are only for launch week and don't include the total player base across all regions and platforms. We don't have similar data from other countries, Battle.net, Microsoft Store, or the whole PC audience. Positive reviews and recommendations could have encouraged more people to give Modern Warfare 4 a chance, and they could have joined the game after launch.

But the numbers add to growing concern about Call of Duty's overall popularity. The franchise has been on a slow downward trend in player interest and public opinion since Modern Warfare 2019 and Black Ops Cold War. Black Ops 6 looked like it might reverse that trend for a moment, but player engagement plummeted after launch.

Activision can't afford to overlook that, especially as development costs keep rising.

Warzone helped keep the franchise alive through the pandemic and was a big help as players were stuck at home. But the following years have shown a clear year-over-year drop, suggesting that the same formula might not be enough to keep Call of Duty at the top.

Tom Henderson of Insider Gaming also makes an interesting case for what Activision needs to change. In a recent piece entitled "COD Needs To Remove Skill Based Matchmaking For It To Be Successful Again," Henderson argues that removing skill-based matchmaking could be one of the most important things toward rebuilding interest in the franchise.

Skill-based matchmaking is not new. This has been a big talking point for years amongst Call of Duty players, many of whom feel the system has taken away some of the randomness and fun that made older entries so popular. It doesn't feel like it's giving you more random matches; it feels like the matchmaking is always putting you up against people of a similar skill level, making every match more and more competitive.

Removing this system, Henderson thinks, could help restore the more natural multiplayer experience that older Call of Duty games were known for. He also says Activision needs to be more transparent with its community, especially about major decisions for the game.

Other games offer examples to support this.

Consider Ubisoft's XDefiant, which heavily highlighted the absence of skill-based matchmaking in its pre-launch marketing push. Within two and a half hours of its release, the game had one million unique players, one of the fastest launches for a game of its kind.

But XDefiant eventually went dark. Its problems included technical debt, netcode issues, a lack of content, and limited progression features. So the lack of skill-based matchmaking was a good hook but not a long-term lifeline for the game.

Another example is War Dogs. The developers have been much more open with their community, often sharing development updates and detailing the game's progress in information-rich developer blogs. They've integrated the community into their communication strategy rather than keeping players at arm's length.

Call of Duty could learn from this. Activision has tried to reach out to players, but there's still work to be done. More transparency on development decisions and listening to community feedback could help to regain some of the trust the franchise has been losing gradually.

Henderson thinks removing skill-based matchmaking could benefit Sledgehammer Games' next Call of Duty title in particular. The studio is reportedly developing a premium release that will launch a brand-new sub-franchise in 2027. This upcoming entry won't have a familiar name players instantly recognize like Modern Warfare or Black Ops.

That makes the project a huge gamble for Activision.

The company has depended heavily on its two biggest sub-franchises for new releases for years. Players know what to expect from another Modern Warfare or Black Ops announcement, and that familiarity has helped sustain interest in annual releases.

But Sledgehammer's next title won't have that privilege. Activision will have to convince gamers that this new sub-franchise is worth their time and money. You need a strong marketing campaign, a clear identity, and enough interesting features to give people a reason to buy it.

That could work for Call of Duty in some ways. The developers have no established name to fall back on, so they need to deliver something that really shines. It might not be enough just to put the Call of Duty logo on the box anymore, especially as players become more selective about which yearly releases they buy.

Plus, timing complicates things further.

Black Ops 7 has wrapped up some storylines, and MW4 is being hyped up as the end to the current storyline. Treyarch's next game is not due until 2028, and the studio has already expressed interest in experimenting with Zombies and bringing ideas that haven't been explored before in the franchise.

Activision needs another way to keep players interested, with these familiar sub-franchises perhaps taking a backseat. Maybe removing skill-based matchmaking and focusing more on community engagement could be a start.

Sledgehammer could actually make a big statement by announcing that their 2027 release will completely remove skill-based matchmaking. With a strong marketing push around that announcement and a more open development process, Activision could build a lot of hype before the game even releases.

And these changes wouldn't have to wait until 2027, either. Activision might take a different approach with Modern Warfare 4 to see if it can bring more players back. With Warzone Season 1 coming up, there's still an opportunity to build on the game's positive reception and improve its overall performance over the year.

Modern Warfare 4 is not a disaster in the end.

Its campaign and DMZ offerings have received plenty of good press, and the multiplayer still has room to improve. But the latest launch numbers suggest that even a relatively well-received Call of Duty release may not draw the massive audience the franchise once enjoyed.

GTA 6 is also coming down the pipeline, and Activision has another heavyweight competitor to consider as players decide where to put their time and money. Call of Duty can't just rely on its established reputation any longer. If the franchise wants to stay relevant in the FPS market, it'll have to give players more reasons to come back. Players shouldn't just buy the next release as a matter of habit.

Modern Warfare 4's launch performance may not tell the whole story, but it's another warning sign Activision needs to take seriously. The company still has opportunities to course-correct, but failing to address rising anxieties around the franchise could make its upcoming releases even harder to move.